Nov
1

Economic Trust and Mistrust Numerical Index



I suggest a simple index of economic trust with the following variables, all of which are scored on a scale of 1 to 10: T (i) = P+L+C+I+S+M+V+F+R+W

The index can thus range from 0 to 100, with 100 signifying total, absolute, unreserved, all-pervasive, and enduring economic trust and 0 represents the complete absence of any form of trust between and among economic agents and actors.

1 divided by the index (1/T(i)) would be the index of economic mistrust.
Population size (P): the bigger the population, the easier it is to cheat and deceive because information is disseminated more slowly and peer pressure is limited;

Law enforcement (L): efficient law enforcement and a functional judiciary enhance trust;

Corruption (C), surprisingly, has a neutral effect: on the one hand, it encourages preemptive mistrust by upsetting the level playing field; on the other hand, corruption and venality increase certainty in otherwise uncertain economic environments by providing a tried-and-true “price list” for services;

Connectivity (I): the more connected individuals are and the faster the dissemination of accurate, transparent information, the higher the level of trust. Technologies such as the Internet serve to enhance economic trust;

Stability and Predictability(S) are the cornerstones of economic trust: government intervention, geopolitical upheavals, crises, abrupt changes in accounting policies and tax laws, hyperinflation, institutional and structural reform and other market-deflecting events and processes all tend to reduce the average level of trust;

Available and reliable price signals (M), not distorted by insider trading, stock manipulation, hoarding, informal economic activities (“black market”), monopolies, and cartels;

Reliable store of value (V): currency or goods and services can as means of exchange and generate trust only when they represent real long-term value

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